Nations must bridge the huge emissions gap and back it up with immediate action in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions, according to the UN Environment Programme.

In its Emissions Gap Report 2024, the UN said that nations must collectively commit to cutting 42 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57 percent by 2035, or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degrees Celsius goal will be gone within a few years.

“A failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century,” the report warned, bringing debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.

The 2.6°C scenario is based on fully implementing current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming. Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming.

Clear and Present Danger

“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in a video message on the report.

“There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters. Around the world, people are paying a terrible price,” he added.

The report also looked at what it would take to get on track to limiting global warming to below 2°C. For this pathway, emissions must fall 28 percent by 2030 and 37 percent from 2019 levels by 2035 – the new milestone year to be included in the next NDCs.

“We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, in the report.

He added: “I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway.”

Delivering Against the Clock

The report also highlighted the consequences of delayed action. The cuts required are relative to 2019 levels, but greenhouse gas emissions have since grown to a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023.

While this makes a marginal difference to the overall cuts required from 2019-2030, the delay in action means that 7.5 percent must be shaved off emissions every year until 2035 for 1.5°C and 4 percent for 2°C.

The size of the annual cuts required will increase with every year’s delay.

As the clock ticks down towards critical deadlines, the urgency for nations to act decisively and collaboratively has never been clearer. The findings of the Emissions Gap Report 2024 serve as a clarion call for immediate, ambitious climate action.

Also Read:

Climate Change Threatens Future of 307,000 Children in Greece, Says UNICEF