India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the 2025 southwest monsoon season, the country’s weather office said on Tuesday, offering a potential boost to agriculture and the broader economy.
The India Meteorological Department forecasts seasonal rainfall at 105 percent of the long-period average between June and September, with a model error margin of plus or minus 5 percent.
Data from 1971 to 2020 shows that the LPA stands at 87 cm.
The agency said there is a 59 percent probability of rainfall falling into the “above normal” or “excess” categories in its first-stage long-range forecast.
This marks a shift from last year’s more variable precipitation and bodes well for crop yields and rural incomes in the upcoming kharif season.
Atmospheric and Ocean Patterns Support Outlook
“Above-normal monsoon rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country, except some regions in northwest India, northeast India, and southern peninsular India,” IMD said in a statement.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions remain neutral in the equatorial Pacific, although atmospheric circulation patterns display La Niña-like characteristics. Climate models indicate these neutral ENSO conditions will persist through the monsoon season.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is also in a neutral phase, with forecasts suggesting these conditions will continue over the coming months.
Low Eurasian Snow Cover May Boost Rainfall
Lower-than-usual snow cover across Eurasia from January to March could further support more vigorous monsoon activity. Historically, reduced snow cover in the northern hemisphere correlates with more robust monsoon rains in India.
The IMD will issue its updated forecast for the season in the last week of May, including more granular regional projections.
Agriculture, which employs over half of India’s population and accounts for around 15 percent of GDP, relies heavily on the annual monsoon. A timely and well-distributed monsoon helps ensure food security, stabilizes prices, and supports rural demand.
